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Multistate Start-up Demonstration Tests

Dr. Michelle Smith

Dr. Michelle Smith / Eastern Kentucky University

Multistate start-up demonstration tests are proposed and analyzed using a Markov Chain approach. The new demonstration tests are generalizations of the CSTF, TSTF, and CSCF start-up demonstration tests discussed in the literature that have the important practical advantage of allowing for early termination when the quality of successful start-ups is exceptional. When the termination results in acceptance of the equipment, the use of a multi-state startup demonstration test results in an increase in the probability of an early termination of as much as 0.35 over the optimal binary start-up test in cases studied. The Markov Chains methodology is used in the probabilistic analysis. Practical guidance on choosing tests, estimation, and comparisons of the various criteria are studied. The Markov Chain approach is then extended to study the non-i.i.d. case.

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